Radoslav Ranković
REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF THE DEPOPULATION PROCESS OF THE BORDER MUNICIPALITIES OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
DOI: 10.35666/28310438.2025.6.271
UDC: 911.3:314.83(497.11)"2014/2023"
The depopulation of the border area of Serbia is not a new phenomenon, but it occupies an important position in contemporary geographical research. Such state is a consequence of the polarization process, i.e. unequal regional development in the center–periphery relation. The object of the study are 44 border municipalities of Serbia and the paper aims to analyze the population change index of these municipalities using a multiple regression model. The mentioned indicator was taken as a dependent variable, since it represents one of the basic measures of the depopulation process, while 13 independent variables were also included in the initial model. Using multiple regression it was established that a statistically significant model (𝑅̅2=0.707; p<0.05) can be formed by including three independent variables: the natural increase rate, the number of marriages and the number of employees in the primary sector. From the adopted model, the municipalities of Čajetina and Veliko Gradište stand out as outliers. The significant deviation of the residual values of these municipalities from the others (12.8 for Čajetina and 7.8 for Veliko Gradište) was influenced by immigration. Only these two border municipalities were distinguished by a positive migration balance in the period 2011–2022. In case of their exclusion from the model, its significance would be higher (𝑅̅2=0.806; p<0.05). The paper represents a contribution to the study of the depopulation process in the border area of Serbia, through the application of a selected statistical method.
Keywords: border municipalities, depopulation, Serbia, multiple regression, population change index.