Aleksandar Lukić
Petra Radeljak Kaufmann
CRORURIS - PRIMJENA METODE SCENARIJA U PLANIRANJU I RAZVOJU RURALNIH PODRUČJA HRVATSKE U BUDUĆNOSTI
DOI: 10.35666/28310438.2016.4.303
UDC: 911.9:911.37(497.5-22)
Abstract: The main anticipated result of the interdisciplinary CRORURIS study is the production of a set of alternative future scenarios for Croatian rural areas in 2030, with the goal of encouraging informed and evidence-based public debate on rural futures. Given their size, population number, functions and the variety of challenges they face, the question of the future of rural areas is one of the most pressing issues in contemporary Europe. This is evident from recent scenario-based approaches to study future trends and driving forces for rural Europe(e.g. SCENAR 2020, EURURALIS). Furthermore, although the majority of rural areas in Croatia face tremendous demographic and economic challenges, to our knowledge no scenario-based research has been done, with thenotable exception of a few partial impact analyses that have been conducted in recent Croatian agricultural policy. This paper presents the methodology and conceptual framework of the CRORURIS study as well as selected preliminary results of the study.
Key words: scenario, rural areas, multivariate analysis, typology, Croatia